August 31, 2015
Russia has begun its military intervention in Syria,
deploying an aerial contingent to a permanent Syrian base, in order to launch
attacks against ISIS and Islamist rebels; US stays silent.
Russian fighter pilots are expected to begin arriving
in Syria in the coming days, and will fly their Russian air force fighter jets
and attack helicopters against ISIS and rebel-aligned targets within the
failing state.
According to Western diplomats, a Russian
expeditionary force has already arrived in Syria and set up camp in an
Assad-controlled airbase. The base is said to be in area surrounding Damascus,
and will serve, for all intents and purposes, as a Russian forward operating
base.
In the coming weeks thousands of Russian military
personnel are set to touch down in Syria, including advisors, instructors,
logistics personnel, technical personnel, members of the aerial protection
division, and the pilots who will operate the aircraft.
Past reports have stated that the Russians were in
talks to sell the Syrians a package of MiG-29 fighter jets, and Yak-130 trainer
jets (which can also serve as attack aircraft.) The current makeup of the
expeditionary force is still unknown, but there is no doubt that Russian pilots
flying combat missions in Syrian skies will definitely change the existing
dynamics in the Middle East.
The Russians do not harbor offensive intentions
towards Israel or other sovereign states in the area, and their main stated
goal is battling ISIS and preserving Assad's rule. However, their presence will
represent a challenge to the Israeli Air Force's freedom of operation in the
skies above the Middle East.
Western diplomatic sources recently reported that a
series of negotiations had been held between the Russians and the Iranians,
mainly focusing on ISIS and the threat it poses to the Assad regime. The
infamous Iranian Quds Force commander Major General Qasem Soleimani recently
visited Moscow in the framework of these talks. As a result the Russians and
the Iranians reached a strategic decision: Make any effort necessary to
preserve Assad's seat of power, so that Syria may act as a barrier, and prevent
the spread of ISIS and Islamist backed militias into the former Soviet Islamic
republics.
The Russians are not the only ones coordinating their
Middle East policy with the Iranians; The US has also jumped aboard that train.
American government officials have been holding intensive consultations with
representatives of the Iranian regime concerning a stronger joint effort
against ISIS in Iraq. It seems that the US government currently views Iran as a
central and necessary force in the campaign against ISIS within Iraq.
The Iranian-American cooperation is focused on two
focal points: The first being Anbar province, where the Iraqis have thus far
failed to expel ISIS; and the second Mosul, where the Iraqis have yet to come
up with a feasible plan to recapture the city.
Western diplomatic sources have emphasized that the
Obama administration is fully aware of the Russian intent to intervene directly
in Syria, but has yet to issue any reaction. The absence of a vocal opposition from
the Obama administration is compounded by its cessation of calls for the
dissolution of Assad's murderous regime.
This and more: The Iranians and the Russians - with
the US well aware - have begun the struggle to reequip the Syrian army, which
has been left in tatters by the civil war. They intend not only to train
Assad's army, but to also equip it. During the entire duration of the civil
war, the Russians have consistently sent a weapons supply ship to the Russian
held port of Tartus in Syria on a weekly basis. The ships would bring missiles,
replacement parts, and different types of ammunition for the Syrian army.
Arab media outlets have recently published reports
that Syria and Russia were looking for an additional port on the Syrian coast,
which will serve the Russians in their mission to hasten the pace of the Syrian
rearmament.
In the meantime, Assad's army is in full scale retreat
in the strategic province of Idlib. Mere days ago, a force from the Jaesh Al
Fatah (A coalition or rebel groups including Jabhat al-Nusra) advanced on the
Abu Duhur military airfield in southwestern Syria's Iblib province, which
borders on Latika. Alwaite and Christian residents of the area have fled to the
last remaining Alawite Bantustans along the country's coastline.
Even Turkey, which has so far avoided any action which
would strengthen Assad, has had to come to terms with the Russian-Iranian move
and the resulting American silence, leading it to launch its own bombing
campaign against ISIS in Syria.
During a recent trip to Qatar, Erdogan reached
understandings with the Qataris and the Saudis regarding a program to arm
Muslim Brotherhood backed rebels who are fighting against ISIS, de-facto
fighting both Assad and ISIS.
Alex Fishman
