15 May 2014
Since the crisis over
Ukraine first erupted, EU member states have wavered over how much economic
pain they are prepared to inflict on themselves to contain Russian aggression.
The concerns are
various. Britain fears that the imposition of financial and banking sanctions
would lead to a rush of Russian capital out of the City of London. Germany and
Italy worry that an energy embargo would prompt Russia to stop the supply of
oil and gas on which they rely. The most immediate dilemma, however, is faced
by France, which is in the final stages of selling two warships to Russia for
€1.2bn.
In 2008 Nicolas
Sarkozy, then French president, agreed to sell Russia two Mistral class
vessels, which can carry troops, landing craft and helicopters. Mr Sarkozy’s
decision was contentious from the start. That same year President Vladimir
Putin had angered the west by occupying Georgia. The US immediately warned
France that the sale would give Mr Putin greater opportunity to enforce his
will in Russia’s near abroad.
Mr Putin’s annexation
of Crimea and provocation in eastern Ukraine this week led John Kerry, US
secretary of state, to express that concern more forcefully. But President François
Hollande’s government is pressing ahead. It will take a final decision on
whether to complete the sale in October just before the first of the ships is
due to set sail for Russia. About 400 Russian sailors will arrive in France in
two weeks for training aboard that vessel.
France makes numerous
arguments to justify the sale. It says that it is merely selling the Kremlin
unarmed “civilian hulls”, which Russia will have to fit out with its own
weapons systems. Alternative buyers are likely to be scarce because Moscow has
already installed some Russian-made components on the vessels.
France can also argue
that all western nations – even the US – are seeking to impose sanctions on
Russia that are neither retrospective nor undermine domestic interests. The US,
for example, is proposing a new set of energy sanctions that block the export
of oil and gas technology to Russia for future drilling projects but not
existing ones. By doing this, the US hopes to inflict pain without undermining
Russia’s immediate contribution to energy supplies.
The problem for France
is that, in the wake of what we have already seen from Mr Putin, the sale of
this hardware would send a powerful signal of western weakness. Russia would be
able to use these warships to threaten its most vulnerable neighbours – the
Black Sea states of Ukraine and Georgia and the Baltic states within Nato. The
US would understandably see this as yet further proof that Europe is more
interested in weapons sales than maintaining its part of the transatlantic
security bargain within Nato.
France’s allies should
assist in trying to find another destination for these ships. This will not be
easy. It would be costly for France to incorporate the vessels into its own
constrained defence budget. EU and Nato member states might perhaps consider
sharing the costs of purchasing and running them as a common asset. In any
event, France should not end up in a situation where it is taking a unilateral
hit for punishing Russia.
This is not an easy
matter for Mr Hollande. Whatever his faults may have been on domestic policy,
he has been decisive on defence and security matters. Last year he courageously
sent French troops to confront jihadism in Mali and chaos in the Central
African Republic.
He now needs to show the
same resolve on the warship sale. If it goes ahead this autumn, it will stand
as an indelible symbol of French – and European – weakness in the face of Mr
Putin’s aggression.
