May 5, 2014
As you may recall, the official Crimean election
results, as reported widely in the Western press, showed a 97 percent vote in favor of annexation with a turnout of 83
percent. No international observers were allowed. The pro-Russia election
pressure would have raised the already weak vote in favor of annexation, of
course.
Yesterday, however, according to a major Ukrainian news site, TSN.ua, the website of the President of Russia’s Council on Civil Society and Human
Rights (shortened to President’s Human Rights Council) posted a report that was
quickly taken down as if it were toxic radioactive waste. According to this
purported report about the March referendum to annex Crimea, the turnout of
Crimean voters was only 30 percent. And of these, only half voted for the
referendum–meaning only 15 percent of Crimean citizens voted for annexation.
The TSN report does not link to a copy of the cited
report. However, there is a report of the Human Rights Council, entitled
“Problems of Crimean Residents,” still up on the president-sovet.ru website, which discusses the Council’s estimates of the results of the March 16
referendum. Quoting from that report: “In Crimea, according to various
indicators, 50-60% voted for unification with Russia with a voter turnout (yavka)
of 30-50%.” This leads to a range of between 15 percent (50% x 30%) and 30
percent (60% x 50%) voting for annexation. The turnout in the Crimean district
of Sevastopol, according to the Council, was higher: 50-80%.
The original version, in Russian, and a version
clumsily translated by Google, are below:
To make sure no one misses this:
Official Kremlin results: 97 percent of polled voters for annexation, turnout 83 percent, and 82
percent of total Crimean population voting in favor.
President’s Human Rights Council mid-point estimate: 55 percent of polled voters for annexation, turnout 40 percent, 22.5
percent of total Crimean population voting in favor.
A member of the Human Rights Council, Svetlana Gannushkina, talked about election fraud on Kanal 24 (as replayed on Ukrainian television), declaring that the Crimean vote “discredited Russia more than could
be dreamed up by a foreign agent.”
We can debate the extent of fraud in the March 16
referendum, but only the Council’s highest estimate just yields the fifty
percent turnout ratio normally required for major referendums. What counts is
that the Putin regime solemnly announced to the world that 82 percent of the
Crimean people voted to join Mother Russia, and many in the West swallowed this
whopper. At best, according to Putin’s own council, only 30 percent did.
Putin plans to repeat the Crimean election farce in
the May 11 referendum on the status of the so-called People’s Republic of
Donetsk. He will use the same tricks to produce an overwhelming vote for
“independence” and a high turnout. The few international election monitors will
object, but Putin counts on repetition of his Big Lie to convince his own
people and sympathetic politicians and press in the West that the people of
east Ukraine actually want to separate from Ukraine.
Will the West let Putin get away with it again?
UPDATE: This article has been
updated to include a screenshot of a report from the Russian Human Rights
Council, and revised to reflect the turnout and voting ranges reflected in that
report. The original version of this article only discussed the 15 percent
figure cited in Ukrainian media.
Paul Roderick Gregory
