April 18, 2014
Staunton, April 18 –
What the US, the EU and Ukraine itself agreed to in Geneva is “worse than
Munich” because Kyiv joined in giving international sanction to actions of the
Russian aggressor and opening the way for the transformation of the internal
arrangements of Ukraine regardless of what Ukrainians want, according to Andrey
Illarionov.
As bad as the Munich accord of 1938
was – and it has long been a synonym for the appeasement of an aggressor -- the
Russian commentator continues, at least the Czechoslovaks at that time were not
forced to participate in it and agree to the dismemberment and redesign of
their country (aillarionov.livejournal.com/675700.html).
And because Czechoslovakia was not
invited to Munich, its people considered that they had been betrayed. Now,
Illarionov suggests, Ukrainians must “wake up” to the horrible reality that
they have been betrayed not just by the West but by their own government and
are now very much on their own.
In his words, the accord shows that
“Putin has received everything he wanted” or “even more,” the commentator says,
and then outlines his reasons for that devastating conclusion.
First, he says, “Ukraine has de
facto agree to ‘foreign administration’” because it has agreed that outside
forces, the West and Russia, even though both have failed to fulfill their
obligations under the Budapest Memorandum, the West by backing away from
insisting that Russia respect it and Russia by openly violating it.
Second, the Geneva accord says
nothing about the removal from the territory of Ukraine “Russian forces,
including the special forces of the GRU, FSB, Special Operations Forces and
others.” The silence of the agreement on that point “de facto” legalizes their
presence; they will certainly remain.
Third, Illarionov points out, the
document “says nothing about Russian aggression,” “not a word about the war
that has been conducted by the Putin regime against Ukraine.” Moscow and perhaps others will treat that as
a legalization and legitimation of Russian aggression, and that in turn may open
the way to more of it.
Fourth, the Geneva agreement says nothing
about the preservation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Given that Russia has already annexed Crimea,
Moscow’s violation of the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine has
been “legalized” not just by the West but by Kyiv as well.
Fifth, Illarionov continues, there
is “not a word” in the document about Crimea, a shortcoming that Moscow will
see as a legitimation of its annexation. Sixth, the accord’s words about the
participation of Ukraine’s regions in the constitutional development of the
country in effect “gives a legal basis for the separatists to block the unitary
character of the Ukrainian state.”
Seventh, the accord gives “all the
separatists” an amnesty. Eighth, its call for the liberation of all building
and institutions and the disarming of “’self-defense’” forces should have been
done anyway, but now those who seized these buildings will walk away unpunished
and invited to take part in the political process.
Ninth, Illarionov continues, the accord
presupposes that Ukraine will become a federal state -- even though such a development “does not
enjoy any significant public support in any region of Ukraine” but only
reflects what Moscow wants. Tenth, that sets the stage for more Crimeas and the
creeping dismemberment of Ukraine.
Eleventh, “the result of the
process of federalization” will not be a federal Ukraine but rather the
creation of a “Novorossiya (‘from Kharkhiv to Odessa’) about which Putin spoke
so inspiringly” the same day this accord was being signed.
Twelfth, the agreement does not
guarantee the holding of presidential and parliamentary elections, a fact that
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stressed and one that means that “the
Russian powers will continue to undermine them ... and say that the authorities
in Kyiv are illegitimate, as Putin said” again on the same day the accord was
signed.
Thirteenth, “according to the
document,” Illarionov says, all “serious organized forces capable of opposing
Russian aggression” such as the Maidan Self-Defense groups and the Right Sector
will be disarmed and disbanded, leaving Ukraine without anyone to defend it
given the weakness of the Ukrainian army and militia.
Fourteenth, because the document
requires the disbanding of such units, any use of force by pro-Moscow groups
against them, an action that was a violation of national and international law
before Geneva has now become “perfectly legal” and thus can be expected.
Fifteenth, there is no reason to
think that Russia will live up to the provisions of this accord any more than
it did the Budapest Memorandum but both Russia and the West will insist that
Ukraine do, something that will further unbalance the playing field against
Ukraine and Ukrainians.
Sixteenth, despite polls showing
that a majority of Ukrainians favor having their country become a member of
NATO, the Geneva accord specifies that Ukraine will remain outside of that
“bloc” and thus face Russian power on its own.
And seventeenth, Illarionov says,
Ukrainians must now recognize that they have not only lost Crimea to Russia but
may lose far more, that their state is at risk of dismemberment, and that those
on whom they had hoped to rely to defend their position have betrayed them.
The Russian commentator concludes
with two extremely disturbing comments.
On the one hand, he says, what has now happened is that a major European
country has been seized “without the use of tanks” because its own rulers have
been “traitors” and that this seizure has been legitimated by the West. And on
the other, while Esau exchanged his birthright for a bowl of food, Ukraine has
given up something essential without getting even that in return.
Paul Goble
